Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tyumen vs Luch-Energiya — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luch-Energiya
Luch-Energiya
9/8/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Geolog (Tyumen')

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Tyumen40%
×Draw30%
Luch-Energiya30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.14
Luch-Energiya
0.96

Tyumen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 40 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.04
Luch-Energiya
0.85

allows per match

Tyumen
1.07
Luch-Energiya
1.23

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Luch-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Luch-Energiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
70%
Tyumen or Luch-Energiya
70%
Draw or Luch-Energiya
60%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
17%
Luch-Energiya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
68%
Tyumen 2+ goals
32%
Tyumen 3+ goals
11%
Luch-Energiya 1+ goals
62%
Luch-Energiya 2+ goals
25%
Luch-Energiya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
57%
Luch-Energiya (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Luch-Energiya away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Luch-Energiya defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Luch-Energiya attack 0.85 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tyumen scores more
40%
level
30%
Luch-Energiya scores more
30%

Tyumen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Luch-Energiya

Tyumen and Luch-Energiya drew 0-0 in First League on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Geolog (Tyumen').