Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tyumen vs Khimik Vurnary — Second League - Group 4 2020

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khimik Vurnary
Khimik Vurnary
4/16/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tyumen56%
×Draw23%
Khimik Vurnary21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.85
Khimik Vurnary
1.04

Tyumen creates 78% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tyumen
2.33
Khimik Vurnary
1.23

allows per match

Tyumen
0.86
Khimik Vurnary
1.36

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Khimik Vurnary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
79%
Tyumen or Khimik Vurnary
77%
Draw or Khimik Vurnary
44%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
32%
Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
84%
Tyumen 2+ goals
55%
Tyumen 3+ goals
28%
Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals
65%
Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals
28%
Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
73%
Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 2.33 + Khimik Vurnary defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.23 + Tyumen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tyumen scores more
56%
level
23%
Khimik Vurnary scores more
21%

Tyumen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Tyumen 2–1 Khimik Vurnary

Tyumen beat Khimik Vurnary 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.