Tyumen vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League - Group 4 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Tyumen57%
Irtysh Omsk23%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tyumen creates 65% more chances
Season form · 28 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tyumen ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tyumen at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches
Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tyumen attack 2.71 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.19
Irtysh Omsk attack 1.70 + Tyumen defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Tyumen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Tyumen substitutes
Volga Ulyanovsk
Chelyabinsk
AmkarTyumen
Novosibirsk
Zvezda PermIrtysh Omsk
Spartak Tuymazy
Ural II
Torpedo Miass
Dinamo Barnaul
Nosta
Orenburg II
Zenit Izhevsk
Lada TolyattiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tyumen host Irtysh Omsk on Tuesday, 1 November 2022 at 12:00. The match is part of the Second League - Group 4 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: Tyumen vs Irtysh Omsk
Tyumen beat Irtysh Omsk 4-0 in Second League - Group 4 on November 1, 2022.
Goals: M. Petrov (12'), A. Korotaev (25'), N. Balakhontsev (79'), I. Porokhov (88').
The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.