Tyumen 3–1 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Tyumen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fakel Voronezh

4/23/2017

First League · Round 33Stadion Geolog (Tyumen')

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Tyumen38%

×Draw28%

Fakel Voronezh33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.11

Tyumen

1.21

Fakel Voronezh

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 89 away

1.07

creates per match

1.20

1.03

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Tyumen

1.07

Fakel Voronezh

1.20

allows per match

Tyumen

1.03

Fakel Voronezh

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

67%

Tyumen or Fakel Voronezh

72%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

62%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

16%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

70%

Tyumen 2+ goals

34%

Tyumen 3+ goals

12%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

67%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

30%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

53%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.03 · 59 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.07 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Tyumen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tyumen scores more

38%

level

28%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

33%

Tyumen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff