Tyumen 4–1 Enisey: Result & Stats | First League

Tyumen

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Enisey

I. Mokaev 86'

D. Tkachuk 82'

M. Khramtsov 23', 10'

D. Tikhonov 38'

10/26/2024

First League · Round 16Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen40%

×Draw28%

Enisey31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.05

Tyumen

1.23

Enisey

1.05

Tyumen creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 126 away

1.04

creates per match

1.03

1.07

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Tyumen

1.04

Enisey

1.03

allows per match

Tyumen

1.07

Enisey

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

69%

Tyumen or Enisey

72%

Draw or Enisey

60%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

18%

Enisey wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

71%

Tyumen 2+ goals

35%

Tyumen 3+ goals

13%

Enisey 1+ goals

65%

Enisey 2+ goals

28%

Enisey 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

56%

Enisey (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.42 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Enisey defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Enisey attack 1.03 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tyumen scores more

40%

level

28%

Enisey scores more

31%

Tyumen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

19'

23'

25'

38'

45+1'

64'

D. Tkachuk← O. Kenfack

64'

I. Mokaev← A. Maryanov

75'

D. Grigoryev← D. Tikhonov

81'

A. Savinov← D. Karpov

81'

A. Voropaev← A. Kulishev

82'

D. Tkachuk

86'

K. Kosarev← A. Korotaev

86'

I. Mokaev

87'

T. Shipunov← A. Mazurin

87'

A. Okladnikov← A. Lomakin

90'

D. Samoylov← A. Chukanov

Tyumen4-4-2

Enisey3-4-2-1

9

Savelyev

23

Ushatov

7

▼

Chukanov

87

▼

Mazurin

8

▼

Lomakin

11

⚽

▼

44

33

5

3

50

97

34

⚽2

2

13

72

20

▼

Kenfack

4

Klenkin

70

▼

Maryanov

32

▼

Kulishev

24

▼

Korotaev

11

▼

Karpov

Manager: I. Menshchikov

64'▲D. Tkachuk←▼O. Kenfack

64'▲I. Mokaev←▼A. Maryanov

81'▲A. Savinov←▼D. Karpov

81'▲A. Voropaev←▼A. Kulishev

86'▲K. Kosarev←▼A. Korotaev

Tyumen substitutes

31Tkachuk90Mokaev10Savinov36Voropaev17Kosarev5Poroykov8Talalay9Kuptsov16Ergardt27Petukhov41Sukhoruchenko

Manager: A. Tikhonov

75'▲D. Grigoryev←▼D. Tikhonov

87'▲T. Shipunov←▼A. Mazurin

87'▲A. Okladnikov←▼A. Lomakin

90'▲D. Samoylov←▼A. Chukanov

Enisey substitutes

13Grigoryev10Shipunov15Okladnikov88Samoylov1Antipin6Batyrev20Laykin43Gilyazetdinov96Rukas

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Enisey

Tyumen beat Enisey 4-1 in First League on October 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Khramtsov (10', 23'), D. Tikhonov (38'), D. Tkachuk (82'), I. Mokaev (86').

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.

Tyumen vs Enisey — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Enisey