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Tyumen vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
3/7/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 2Geolog Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tyumen51%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Vladivostok25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.69
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.11

Tyumen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tyumen
2.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.00

allows per match

Tyumen
1.22
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.38

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
75%
Tyumen or Dinamo Vladivostok
76%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
49%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
27%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
82%
Tyumen 2+ goals
50%
Tyumen 3+ goals
24%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
67%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 2.00 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.00 + Tyumen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tyumen scores more
51%
level
24%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
25%

Tyumen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Tyumen 1–1 Dinamo Vladivostok

Tyumen and Dinamo Vladivostok drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Geolog Stadium in Tyumen.