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Tyumen vs Dinamo Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
7 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
5/2/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 11Geolog Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tyumen55%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Moskva II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
2.11
Dinamo Moskva II
1.33

Tyumen creates 59% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tyumen
2.00
Dinamo Moskva II
1.44

allows per match

Tyumen
1.22
Dinamo Moskva II
2.22

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
76%
Tyumen or Dinamo Moskva II
79%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
45%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
33%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
88%
Tyumen 2+ goals
62%
Tyumen 3+ goals
35%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
70%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 2.00 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.44 + Tyumen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tyumen scores more
55%
level
21%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
24%

Tyumen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Dinamo Moskva II

Tyumen beat Dinamo Moskva II 7-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Geolog Stadium in Tyumen.