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Tyumen vs Chernomorets — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
O. Kenfack 21'
R. Akbashev 36'
N. Nikiforov 32', 18'
M. Uridia 1'
11/10/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tyumen38%
×Draw29%
Chernomorets33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.17
Chernomorets
1.06

Tyumen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.04
Chernomorets
1.04

allows per match

Tyumen
1.07
Chernomorets
1.29

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
67%
Tyumen or Chernomorets
71%
Draw or Chernomorets
62%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
16%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
69%
Tyumen 2+ goals
33%
Tyumen 3+ goals
11%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
65%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
29%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
54%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Chernomorets defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chernomorets attack 1.04 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tyumen scores more
38%
level
29%
Chernomorets scores more
33%

Tyumen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
M. Uridia
18'
N. Nikiforov
21'
O. Kenfack
32'
N. Nikiforov
36'
R. Akbashev
46'
D. Tkachuk← A. Kulishev
46'
A. Voropaev← A. Bem
46'
I. Mokaev← A. Maryanov
54'
Nikita Nikiforov
57'
Denis Fomin
64'
V. Cherov← V. Krotov
64'
D. Gurchenko← N. Nikiforov
77'
A. Savinov← A. Korotaev
84'
A. Antonov← A. Bezchasnyuk
84'
D. Tegues← M. Uridia
90+2'
Mikhail Petrov
90+2'
O. Krasilnichenko← M. Musalov

Statistics

TyumenChernomorets
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Chernomorets

Chernomorets beat Tyumen 4-1 in First League on November 10, 2024.

Goals: M. Uridia (1'), N. Nikiforov (18', 32'), O. Kenfack (21'), R. Akbashev (36').

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.