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Tyumen vs Baltika — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika
Baltika
I. Petrov 75'
3/16/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen31%
×Draw29%
Baltika40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.02
Baltika
1.21

Baltika creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 108 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.04
Baltika
1.35

allows per match

Tyumen
1.07
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
60%
Tyumen or Baltika
71%
Draw or Baltika
69%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
12%
Baltika wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
64%
Tyumen 2+ goals
27%
Tyumen 3+ goals
8%
Baltika 1+ goals
70%
Baltika 2+ goals
34%
Baltika 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
43%
Baltika (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.00 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Baltika attack 1.35 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tyumen scores more
31%
level
29%
Baltika scores more
40%

Baltika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Stanislav Poroykov
46'
M. Petrov← V. Shitov
46'
I. Stefanovich← K. Nikishin
46'
Y. Kovalev← E. Chernov
46'
S. Pryakhin← N. Titkov
60'
D. Karpov← I. Gulko
60'
D. Tkachuk← S. Poroykov
60'
A. Bem← A. Maryanov
68'
A. Eldarushev← B. Gil
68'
A. Mokhammad← V. Saus
75'
I. Petrov
79'
D. Grigoryev← A. Korotaev

Statistics

TyumenBaltika
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Baltika

Baltika beat Tyumen 1-0 in First League on March 16, 2025.

Goals: I. Petrov (75').

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.