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Tyumen vs Akron — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Akron
Akron
5/5/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 31Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen37%
×Draw30%
Akron33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.11
Akron
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 74 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.04
Akron
0.97

allows per match

Tyumen
1.07
Akron
1.18

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
67%
Tyumen or Akron
70%
Draw or Akron
63%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
15%
Akron wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
67%
Tyumen 2+ goals
30%
Tyumen 3+ goals
10%
Akron 1+ goals
64%
Akron 2+ goals
27%
Akron 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
53%
Akron (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

Akron away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Akron defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Akron attack 0.97 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tyumen scores more
37%
level
30%
Akron scores more
33%

Tyumen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Akron

Akron beat Tyumen 2-0 in First League on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.