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TyPS vs VaKP — Suomen Cup 2018

TyPS
TyPS
FT
0 – 6
VaKP
VaKP
3/11/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundValkeakosken Palloiluhalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TyPS13%
×Draw14%
VaKP72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TyPS
1.33
VaKP
3.17

VaKP creates 138% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

TyPS
1.67
VaKP
3.33

allows per match

TyPS
3.00
VaKP
1.00

finishing

TyPS+0.00on par
VaKP+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TyPS ↓

VaKP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

TyPS or draw
28%
TyPS or VaKP
86%
Draw or VaKP
87%

Winning margin

TyPS wins by 2+
5%
VaKP wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

TyPS 1+ goals
74%
TyPS 2+ goals
38%
TyPS 3+ goals
15%
VaKP 1+ goals
96%
VaKP 2+ goals
82%
VaKP 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

TyPS (draw refunded)
15%
VaKP (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TyPS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

VaKP away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TyPS attack 1.67 + VaKP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

VaKP attack 3.33 + TyPS defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

TyPS scores more
13%
level
14%
VaKP scores more
72%

VaKP at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "VaKP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TyPS vs VaKP

VaKP beat TyPS 6-0 in Suomen Cup on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Valkeakosken Palloiluhalli in Valkeakoski.