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Tynset vs Ranheim II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Tynset
Tynset
CANC
14:00
Ranheim II
Ranheim II
9/19/20203. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 7Nytrømoen gras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tynset52%
×Draw18%
Ranheim II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tynset
2.79
Ranheim II
2.12

Tynset creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tynset
1.57
Ranheim II
1.67

allows per match

Tynset
2.57
Ranheim II
4.00

finishing

Tynset+0.00on par
Ranheim II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tynset ↓

Ranheim II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Tynset or draw
70%
Tynset or Ranheim II
82%
Draw or Ranheim II
48%

Winning margin

Tynset wins by 2+
33%
Ranheim II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tynset 1+ goals
94%
Tynset 2+ goals
76%
Tynset 3+ goals
52%
Ranheim II 1+ goals
88%
Ranheim II 2+ goals
62%
Ranheim II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Tynset (draw refunded)
64%
Ranheim II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tynset at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Ranheim II away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tynset attack 1.57 + Ranheim II defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Ranheim II attack 1.67 + Tynset defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tynset scores more
52%
level
18%
Ranheim II scores more
30%

Tynset at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tynset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tynset vs Ranheim II — Match Preview

Tynset face Ranheim II on September 19, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tynset host Ranheim II at Nytrømoen gras.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.