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Tynset vs Byåsen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Tynset
Tynset
CANC
14:00
Byåsen
Byåsen
10/10/20203. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 10Nytrømoen gras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tynset19%
×Draw17%
Byåsen64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tynset
1.46
Byåsen
2.75

Byåsen creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tynset
1.57
Byåsen
2.94

allows per match

Tynset
2.57
Byåsen
1.34

finishing

Tynset+0.00on par
Byåsen+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tynset ↓

Byåsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Tynset or draw
36%
Tynset or Byåsen
83%
Draw or Byåsen
81%

Winning margin

Tynset wins by 2+
8%
Byåsen wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Tynset 1+ goals
77%
Tynset 2+ goals
43%
Tynset 3+ goals
18%
Byåsen 1+ goals
93%
Byåsen 2+ goals
75%
Byåsen 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Tynset (draw refunded)
23%
Byåsen (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tynset at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Byåsen away — creates 2.94, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tynset attack 1.57 + Byåsen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Byåsen attack 2.94 + Tynset defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tynset scores more
19%
level
17%
Byåsen scores more
64%

Byåsen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Byåsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tynset vs Byåsen — Match Preview

Tynset face Byåsen on October 10, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tynset host Byåsen at Nytrømoen gras.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.