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Tynecastle vs Lothian Hutchison — FA Cup 2019

Tynecastle
Tynecastle
FT
0 – 1
Lothian Hutchison
Lothian Hutchison
9/2/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMeggetland Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tynecastle36%
×Draw21%
Lothian Hutchison42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tynecastle
1.85
Lothian Hutchison
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tynecastle
1.71
Lothian Hutchison
1.44

allows per match

Tynecastle
2.57
Lothian Hutchison
2.00

finishing

Tynecastle+0.00on par
Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tynecastle ↓

Lothian Hutchison →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tynecastle or draw
58%
Tynecastle or Lothian Hutchison
79%
Draw or Lothian Hutchison
64%

Winning margin

Tynecastle wins by 2+
19%
Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tynecastle 1+ goals
84%
Tynecastle 2+ goals
55%
Tynecastle 3+ goals
28%
Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals
86%
Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals
59%
Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Tynecastle (draw refunded)
46%
Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tynecastle at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Lothian Hutchison away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tynecastle attack 1.71 + Lothian Hutchison defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Lothian Hutchison attack 1.44 + Tynecastle defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tynecastle scores more
36%
level
21%
Lothian Hutchison scores more
42%

Lothian Hutchison at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lothian Hutchison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tynecastle vs Lothian Hutchison

Lothian Hutchison beat Tynecastle 1-0 in FA Cup on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Meggetland Sport Complex in Edinburgh.