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Tynecastle vs Hill Of Beath Hawthorn — FA Cup 2019

Tynecastle
Tynecastle
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
Jardin 59'
Tosh 65'
Smith 46'
Watt 24'
9/27/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundMeggetland Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tynecastle23%
×Draw20%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tynecastle
1.42
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.29

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tynecastle
1.71
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00

allows per match

Tynecastle
2.57
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.13

finishing

Tynecastle+0.00on par
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tynecastle ↓

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Tynecastle or draw
43%
Tynecastle or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
80%
Draw or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
77%

Winning margin

Tynecastle wins by 2+
10%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Tynecastle 1+ goals
76%
Tynecastle 2+ goals
41%
Tynecastle 3+ goals
17%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals
90%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals
66%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Tynecastle (draw refunded)
29%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tynecastle at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tynecastle attack 1.71 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 2.00 + Tynecastle defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tynecastle scores more
23%
level
20%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more
57%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Watt
46'
Smith
59'
Jardin
65'
Tosh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Tynecastle 2–3 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn beat Tynecastle 3-2 in FA Cup on September 27, 2024.

Goals: Watt (24'), Smith (46'), Jardin (59'), Tosh (65').

The match was played at Meggetland Sport Complex in Edinburgh.