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Tynecastle vs Glasgow University — FA Cup 2019

Tynecastle
Tynecastle
FT
4 – 0
Glasgow University
Glasgow University
8/30/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMeggetland Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tynecastle65%
×Draw16%
Glasgow University18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tynecastle
2.94
Glasgow University
1.53

Tynecastle creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tynecastle
1.71
Glasgow University
0.50

allows per match

Tynecastle
2.57
Glasgow University
4.17

finishing

Tynecastle+0.00on par
Glasgow University+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tynecastle ↓

Glasgow University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Tynecastle or draw
82%
Tynecastle or Glasgow University
84%
Draw or Glasgow University
35%

Winning margin

Tynecastle wins by 2+
45%
Glasgow University wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tynecastle 1+ goals
95%
Tynecastle 2+ goals
79%
Tynecastle 3+ goals
55%
Glasgow University 1+ goals
78%
Glasgow University 2+ goals
45%
Glasgow University 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tynecastle (draw refunded)
78%
Glasgow University (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tynecastle at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Glasgow University away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tynecastle attack 1.71 + Glasgow University defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.94

Glasgow University attack 0.50 + Tynecastle defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tynecastle scores more
65%
level
16%
Glasgow University scores more
18%

Tynecastle at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tynecastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Tynecastle 4–0 Glasgow University

Tynecastle beat Glasgow University 4-0 in FA Cup on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Meggetland Sport Complex in Edinburgh.