Tynecastle 4–2 Girvan: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Tynecastle

4 – 2

Girvan

8/28/2021

FA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundMeggetland Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tynecastle41%

×Draw19%

Girvan39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TynecastleExpected goals in this matchGirvan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

2.29

Tynecastle

2.35

Girvan

2.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.71

creates per match

2.00

2.57

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Tynecastle

1.71

Girvan

2.00

allows per match

Tynecastle

2.57

Girvan

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tynecastle+0.00on par

Girvan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tynecastle ↓

Girvan →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Tynecastle or draw

61%

Tynecastle or Girvan

81%

Draw or Girvan

59%

Winning margin

Tynecastle wins by 2+

24%

Girvan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tynecastle 1+ goals

90%

Tynecastle 2+ goals

68%

Tynecastle 3+ goals

41%

Girvan 1+ goals

90%

Girvan 2+ goals

66%

Girvan 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Tynecastle (draw refunded)

51%

Girvan (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tynecastle at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Girvan away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tynecastle attack 1.71 + Girvan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Girvan attack 2.00 + Tynecastle defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tynecastle scores more

41%

level

19%

Girvan scores more

39%

Tynecastle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tynecastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff