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Tynecastle vs Cumbernauld Colts — FA Cup 2019

Tynecastle
Tynecastle
FT
2 – 3
Cumbernauld Colts
Cumbernauld Colts
12/12/2020FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMeggetland Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tynecastle46%
×Draw20%
Cumbernauld Colts35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tynecastle
2.35
Cumbernauld Colts
2.04

Tynecastle creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tynecastle
1.71
Cumbernauld Colts
1.50

allows per match

Tynecastle
2.57
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00

finishing

Tynecastle+0.00on par
Cumbernauld Colts+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tynecastle ↓

Cumbernauld Colts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Tynecastle or draw
65%
Tynecastle or Cumbernauld Colts
80%
Draw or Cumbernauld Colts
54%

Winning margin

Tynecastle wins by 2+
27%
Cumbernauld Colts wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tynecastle 1+ goals
90%
Tynecastle 2+ goals
68%
Tynecastle 3+ goals
41%
Cumbernauld Colts 1+ goals
87%
Cumbernauld Colts 2+ goals
60%
Cumbernauld Colts 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Tynecastle (draw refunded)
57%
Cumbernauld Colts (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tynecastle at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Cumbernauld Colts away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tynecastle attack 1.71 + Cumbernauld Colts defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.35

Cumbernauld Colts attack 1.50 + Tynecastle defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tynecastle scores more
46%
level
20%
Cumbernauld Colts scores more
35%

Tynecastle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tynecastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tynecastle vs Cumbernauld Colts

Cumbernauld Colts beat Tynecastle 3-2 in FA Cup on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Meggetland Sport Complex in Edinburgh.