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Tynecastle vs Brora Rangers — FA Cup 2019

Tynecastle
Tynecastle
FT
0 – 6
Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundMeggetland Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tynecastle16%
×Draw18%
Brora Rangers66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tynecastle
1.21
Brora Rangers
2.57

Brora Rangers creates 112% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tynecastle
1.71
Brora Rangers
2.57

allows per match

Tynecastle
2.57
Brora Rangers
0.71

finishing

Tynecastle+0.00on par
Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tynecastle ↓

Brora Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tynecastle or draw
34%
Tynecastle or Brora Rangers
82%
Draw or Brora Rangers
84%

Winning margin

Tynecastle wins by 2+
6%
Brora Rangers wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Tynecastle 1+ goals
70%
Tynecastle 2+ goals
34%
Tynecastle 3+ goals
12%
Brora Rangers 1+ goals
92%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
72%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Tynecastle (draw refunded)
20%
Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tynecastle at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 2.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tynecastle attack 1.71 + Brora Rangers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.21

Brora Rangers attack 2.57 + Tynecastle defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tynecastle scores more
16%
level
18%
Brora Rangers scores more
66%

Brora Rangers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Tynecastle 0–6 Brora Rangers

Brora Rangers beat Tynecastle 6-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Meggetland Sport Complex in Edinburgh.