Tychy 71 2–1 Wigry Suwałki: Result & Stats | I Liga

Tychy 71

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wigry Suwałki

D. Krišto 90+2'

K. Piatek 16'

B. Szeliga 78' (OG)

9/14/2019

I Liga · Round 9Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tychy 7151%

×Draw25%

Wigry Suwałki24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tychy 71Expected goals in this matchWigry Suwałki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.98

Tychy 71

1.56

Wigry Suwałki

0.98

Tychy 71 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 29 away

1.43

creates per match

0.72

1.24

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Tychy 71

1.43

Wigry Suwałki

0.72

allows per match

Tychy 71

1.24

Wigry Suwałki

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Wigry Suwałki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw

76%

Tychy 71 or Wigry Suwałki

75%

Draw or Wigry Suwałki

49%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

26%

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals

79%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

46%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

21%

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

62%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

26%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

68%

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 128 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.43 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Wigry Suwałki attack 0.72 + Tychy 71 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tychy 71 scores more

51%

level

25%

Wigry Suwałki scores more

24%

Tychy 71 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

K. Piatek

36'

M. Piatkowski

51'

A. Karankiewicz

56'

R. Bartczak← P. Gierach

61'

S. Steblecki

67'

Ł. Moneta← S. Steblecki

70'

K. Matuszewski

73'

C. Sauczek

73'

S. Lewicki← M. Piątkowski

73'

M. Żebrakowski← K. Sabillo

78'

B. SzeligaOwn goal

88'

D. Kristo

89'

O. Fürst← C. Sauczek

90+2'

D. Krišto

Tychy

Wigry

▼

▼

▼

⚽

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

67'▲Ł. Moneta←▼S. Steblecki

73'▲S. Lewicki←▼M. Piątkowski

Tychy 71 substitutes

MonetaLewicki

Manager: A. Fedoruk

56'▲R. Bartczak←▼P. Gierach

73'▲M. Żebrakowski←▼K. Sabillo

89'▲O. Fürst←▼C. Sauczek

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

BartczakŻebrakowskiFürst