Tychy 71 1–0 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats | I Liga

Tychy 71

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bytovia Bytów

3/30/2019

I Liga · Round 26Stadion Miejski (Tychy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tychy 7144%

×Draw24%

Bytovia Bytów32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tychy 71Expected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.34

Tychy 71

1.63

Bytovia Bytów

1.34

Tychy 71 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

1.50

creates per match

1.47

1.22

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Tychy 71

1.50

Bytovia Bytów

1.47

allows per match

Tychy 71

1.22

Bytovia Bytów

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw

68%

Tychy 71 or Bytovia Bytów

76%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

56%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

23%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals

80%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

48%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

22%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

74%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

39%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

58%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tychy 71 scores more

44%

level

24%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

32%

Tychy 71 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff