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Txantrea vs San Juan — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Txantrea
Txantrea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Juan
San Juan
2/27/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 18Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Txantrea39%
×Draw27%
San Juan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Txantrea
1.28
San Juan
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

creates per match

Txantrea
1.63
San Juan
1.29

allows per match

Txantrea
1.07
San Juan
0.94

finishing

Txantrea+0.00on par
San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Txantrea ↓

San Juan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Txantrea or draw
66%
Txantrea or San Juan
73%
Draw or San Juan
61%

Winning margin

Txantrea wins by 2+
17%
San Juan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Txantrea 1+ goals
72%
Txantrea 2+ goals
37%
Txantrea 3+ goals
14%
San Juan 1+ goals
69%
San Juan 2+ goals
33%
San Juan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Txantrea (draw refunded)
53%
San Juan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Txantrea at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Txantrea attack 1.63 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

San Juan attack 1.29 + Txantrea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Txantrea scores more
39%
level
27%
San Juan scores more
34%

Txantrea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Txantrea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Txantrea vs San Juan

San Juan beat Txantrea 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea in Pamplona.