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Txantrea vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Txantrea
Txantrea
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
5/1/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 3Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Txantrea59%
×Draw21%
Peña Azagresa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Txantrea
2.03
Peña Azagresa
1.10

Txantrea creates 85% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

Txantrea
1.63
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Txantrea
1.07
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Txantrea+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Txantrea ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Txantrea or draw
80%
Txantrea or Peña Azagresa
79%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
41%

Winning margin

Txantrea wins by 2+
35%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Txantrea 1+ goals
87%
Txantrea 2+ goals
60%
Txantrea 3+ goals
33%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
67%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
30%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Txantrea (draw refunded)
74%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Txantrea at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Txantrea attack 1.63 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.03

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Txantrea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Txantrea scores more
59%
level
21%
Peña Azagresa scores more
20%

Txantrea at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Txantrea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Txantrea 3 – 0 Peña Azagresa

Txantrea beat Peña Azagresa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea in Pamplona.