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Txantrea vs Gares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Txantrea
Txantrea
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gares
Gares
11/27/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 12Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Txantrea66%
×Draw20%
Gares14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Txantrea
2.04
Gares
0.79

Txantrea creates 158% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 32 away

creates per match

Txantrea
1.63
Gares
0.50

allows per match

Txantrea
1.07
Gares
2.44

finishing

Txantrea+0.00on par
Gares+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Txantrea ↓

Gares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Txantrea or draw
86%
Txantrea or Gares
80%
Draw or Gares
34%

Winning margin

Txantrea wins by 2+
41%
Gares wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Txantrea 1+ goals
87%
Txantrea 2+ goals
60%
Txantrea 3+ goals
33%
Gares 1+ goals
55%
Gares 2+ goals
19%
Gares 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Txantrea (draw refunded)
83%
Gares (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Txantrea at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

Gares away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Txantrea attack 1.63 + Gares defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.04

Gares attack 0.50 + Txantrea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Txantrea scores more
66%
level
20%
Gares scores more
14%

Txantrea at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Txantrea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Txantrea vs Gares

Txantrea beat Gares 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea in Pamplona.