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Txantrea vs Avance Ezcabarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Txantrea
Txantrea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
10/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 5Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Txantrea50%
×Draw25%
Avance Ezcabarte25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Txantrea
1.56
Avance Ezcabarte
1.02

Txantrea creates 53% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 64 away

creates per match

Txantrea
1.63
Avance Ezcabarte
0.97

allows per match

Txantrea
1.07
Avance Ezcabarte
1.50

finishing

Txantrea+0.00on par
Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Txantrea ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Txantrea or draw
75%
Txantrea or Avance Ezcabarte
75%
Draw or Avance Ezcabarte
50%

Winning margin

Txantrea wins by 2+
26%
Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Txantrea 1+ goals
79%
Txantrea 2+ goals
46%
Txantrea 3+ goals
21%
Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
64%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
27%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Txantrea (draw refunded)
67%
Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Txantrea at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Txantrea attack 1.63 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Txantrea defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Txantrea scores more
50%
level
25%
Avance Ezcabarte scores more
25%

Txantrea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Txantrea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Txantrea 0–0 Avance Ezcabarte

Txantrea and Avance Ezcabarte drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Instalaciones Deportivas Chantrea in Pamplona.