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Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Txantrea
Txantrea
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 25Campo Igueldea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avance Ezcabarte46%
×Draw24%
Txantrea30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avance Ezcabarte
1.66
Txantrea
1.29

Avance Ezcabarte creates 29% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 109 away

creates per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.72
Txantrea
1.28

allows per match

Avance Ezcabarte
1.31
Txantrea
1.60

finishing

Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par
Txantrea+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avance Ezcabarte ↓

Txantrea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Avance Ezcabarte or draw
70%
Avance Ezcabarte or Txantrea
76%
Draw or Txantrea
54%

Winning margin

Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
24%
Txantrea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
81%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
49%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
23%
Txantrea 1+ goals
72%
Txantrea 2+ goals
37%
Txantrea 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
61%
Txantrea (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avance Ezcabarte at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Txantrea away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.60 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avance Ezcabarte attack 1.72 + Txantrea defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Txantrea attack 1.28 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avance Ezcabarte scores more
46%
level
24%
Txantrea scores more
30%

Avance Ezcabarte at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avance Ezcabarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea

Avance Ezcabarte beat Txantrea 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Igueldea in Arre.