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TWL Elektra vs Krems — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

TWL Elektra
TWL Elektra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Krems
Krems
3/10/2023Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 19Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

TWL Elektra41%
×Draw25%
Krems34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TWL Elektra
1.51
Krems
1.34

TWL Elektra creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 32 away

creates per match

TWL Elektra
1.36
Krems
1.28

allows per match

TWL Elektra
1.41
Krems
1.66

finishing

TWL Elektra+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TWL Elektra ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TWL Elektra or draw
66%
TWL Elektra or Krems
75%
Draw or Krems
59%

Winning margin

TWL Elektra wins by 2+
20%
Krems wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TWL Elektra 1+ goals
78%
TWL Elektra 2+ goals
44%
TWL Elektra 3+ goals
19%
Krems 1+ goals
74%
Krems 2+ goals
39%
Krems 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

TWL Elektra (draw refunded)
55%
Krems (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TWL Elektra at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Krems away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TWL Elektra attack 1.36 + Krems defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.51

Krems attack 1.28 + TWL Elektra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TWL Elektra scores more
41%
level
25%
Krems scores more
34%

TWL Elektra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TWL Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: TWL Elektra 1–0 Krems

TWL Elektra beat Krems 1-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax in Wien.