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TWL Elektra vs Bruck/Leitha — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

TWL Elektra
TWL Elektra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
8/7/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 2Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

TWL Elektra50%
×Draw23%
Bruck/Leitha27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TWL Elektra
1.77
Bruck/Leitha
1.25

TWL Elektra creates 42% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 54 away

creates per match

TWL Elektra
1.36
Bruck/Leitha
1.09

allows per match

TWL Elektra
1.41
Bruck/Leitha
2.17

finishing

TWL Elektra+0.00on par
Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TWL Elektra ↓

Bruck/Leitha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

TWL Elektra or draw
73%
TWL Elektra or Bruck/Leitha
77%
Draw or Bruck/Leitha
50%

Winning margin

TWL Elektra wins by 2+
27%
Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

TWL Elektra 1+ goals
83%
TWL Elektra 2+ goals
53%
TWL Elektra 3+ goals
26%
Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
71%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
36%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

TWL Elektra (draw refunded)
65%
Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TWL Elektra at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Bruck/Leitha away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TWL Elektra attack 1.36 + Bruck/Leitha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.09 + TWL Elektra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TWL Elektra scores more
50%
level
23%
Bruck/Leitha scores more
27%

TWL Elektra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TWL Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: TWL Elektra 2–1 Bruck/Leitha

TWL Elektra beat Bruck/Leitha 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax in Wien.