Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TWL Elektra vs Ardagger — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

TWL Elektra
TWL Elektra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ardagger
Ardagger
5/31/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 30Sportplatz Rax

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

TWL Elektra50%
×Draw26%
Ardagger24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TWL Elektra
1.48
Ardagger
0.94

TWL Elektra creates 57% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

creates per match

TWL Elektra
1.36
Ardagger
0.47

allows per match

TWL Elektra
1.41
Ardagger
1.60

finishing

TWL Elektra+0.00on par
Ardagger+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TWL Elektra ↓

Ardagger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TWL Elektra or draw
76%
TWL Elektra or Ardagger
74%
Draw or Ardagger
50%

Winning margin

TWL Elektra wins by 2+
25%
Ardagger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TWL Elektra 1+ goals
77%
TWL Elektra 2+ goals
43%
TWL Elektra 3+ goals
19%
Ardagger 1+ goals
61%
Ardagger 2+ goals
24%
Ardagger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

TWL Elektra (draw refunded)
67%
Ardagger (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TWL Elektra at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Ardagger away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TWL Elektra attack 1.36 + Ardagger defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ardagger attack 0.47 + TWL Elektra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TWL Elektra scores more
50%
level
26%
Ardagger scores more
24%

TWL Elektra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TWL Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: TWL Elektra 0–2 Ardagger

Ardagger beat TWL Elektra 2-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rax in Wien.