Twente W 1–1 Real Madrid W: Result & Stats

Twente W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Madrid W

J. Ravensbergen 46'

S. Dabritz 90'

12/17/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 6De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Twente W66%

×Draw17%

Real Madrid W16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Twente WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.28

Twente W

2.68

Real Madrid W

1.28

Twente W creates 109% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

3.72

creates per match

1.56

1.00

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Twente W

3.72

Real Madrid W

1.56

allows per match

Twente W

1.00

Real Madrid W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Twente W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Twente W or draw

84%

Twente W or Real Madrid W

83%

Draw or Real Madrid W

34%

Winning margin

Twente W wins by 2+

45%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Twente W 1+ goals

93%

Twente W 2+ goals

74%

Twente W 3+ goals

49%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

72%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

37%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Twente W (draw refunded)

80%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente W at home — creates 3.72, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente W attack 3.72 + Real Madrid W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.68

Real Madrid W attack 1.56 + Twente W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Twente W scores more

66%

level

17%

Real Madrid W scores more

16%

Twente W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Twente W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Lemey

Twente W · G

8.9

Match Events

4'

Sara DäbritzGoal cancelled

46'

J. Ravensbergen↳ A. Tuin

54'

Sara Däbritz

55'

A. del Castillo← N. Feller

74'

S. te Brake← S. Proost

75'

N. Sanmartin← A. Redondo

83'

P. Comendador← C. Weir

83'

B. Andersson← Yasmim

86'

R. Ivens← E. Oude Elberink

90+1'

Sophie te Brake

90'

S. Dabritz↳ B. Andersson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TwenteReal

Overview

38%Possession62%

6Total Shots18

5Corners10

9Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots18

4On Target9

0Off Target6

2Blocked3

4Inside Box13

2Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

217Total Passes338

160Accurate Passes299

74%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1