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Twente W vs PEC Zwolle W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Twente W
Twente W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PEC Zwolle W
PEC Zwolle W
12/14/2024Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 10Sportpark Schreurserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Twente W72%
×Draw16%
PEC Zwolle W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente W
2.71
PEC Zwolle W
1.04

Twente W creates 161% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

Twente W
3.41
PEC Zwolle W
1.16

allows per match

Twente W
0.92
PEC Zwolle W
2.01

finishing

Twente W+0.00on par
PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente W ↓

PEC Zwolle W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Twente W or draw
88%
Twente W or PEC Zwolle W
84%
Draw or PEC Zwolle W
28%

Winning margin

Twente W wins by 2+
51%
PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Twente W 1+ goals
93%
Twente W 2+ goals
75%
Twente W 3+ goals
50%
PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals
65%
PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals
28%
PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Twente W (draw refunded)
85%
PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente W at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.92 · 73 matches

PEC Zwolle W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente W attack 3.41 + PEC Zwolle W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.71

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.16 + Twente W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Twente W scores more
72%
level
16%
PEC Zwolle W scores more
12%

Twente W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Twente W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: Twente W 2–1 PEC Zwolle W

Twente W beat PEC Zwolle W 2-1 in Eredivisie Women on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Schreurserve in Enschede.