Twente W 6–0 NAC Breda W: Result & Stats

Twente W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

NAC Breda W

E. Oude Elberink 78'

J. Ravensbergen 62'

E. van der Vliet 59' (OG)

R. Ivens 52'

D. van Ginkel 41'

L. Groenewegen 14'

9/21/2025

Eredivisie Women · Round 2Sportpark Schreurserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Twente W88%

×Draw8%

NAC Breda W4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Twente WExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.67

0.74

Twente W

3.67

NAC Breda W

0.74

Twente W creates 396% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 11 away

3.44

creates per match

0.55

0.92

allows per match

3.91

creates per match

Twente W

3.44

NAC Breda W

0.55

allows per match

Twente W

0.92

NAC Breda W

3.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Twente W+0.00on par

NAC Breda W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente W ↓

NAC Breda W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Twente W or draw

96%

Twente W or NAC Breda W

92%

Draw or NAC Breda W

12%

Winning margin

Twente W wins by 2+

73%

NAC Breda W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Twente W 1+ goals

97%

Twente W 2+ goals

87%

Twente W 3+ goals

68%

NAC Breda W 1+ goals

52%

NAC Breda W 2+ goals

17%

NAC Breda W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Twente W (draw refunded)

96%

NAC Breda W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente W at home — creates 3.44, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

NAC Breda W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente W attack 3.44 + NAC Breda W defence 3.91 → ÷2 → 3.67

NAC Breda W attack 0.55 + Twente W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Twente W scores more

88%

level

8%

NAC Breda W scores more

4%

Twente W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Twente W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

L. Groenewegen↳ A. Tuin

41'

I. van der Vegt← L. Vliek

41'

46'

52'

56'

59'

E. van der VlietOwn goal

62'

J. Ravensbergen↳ J. Roord

69'

C. Promes← B. Franken

69'

S. de Blij← E. van der Vliet

70'

E. Oude Elberink← J. Ravensbergen

70'

A. Gelevert← D. van Ginkel

70'

S. Aurelio← S. Heijblom

75'

N. van den Burg← L. Verhoef

78'

E. Oude Elberink↳ A. Andradottir

81'

M. Goutier← K. Heshof

Twente

NAC

1

Haan

2

▼

Heshof

18

Houweling

4

▼

5

14

20

27

🥅

▼

Vliet

6

▼

Heijblom

11

Schneijde

9

▼

Franken

1

Lemey

12

▼

Vliek

11

A

Tuin

5

▼

Knol

4

Carleer

6

⚽

Groeneweg

8

⚽

▼

Ginkel

10

A

Roord

17

A

Andradott

9

⚽

▼

Ravensber

29

⚽

▼

Ivens

Manager: Corina Dekker

41'▲I. van der Vegt←▼L. Vliek

46'▲S. te Brake←▼A. Knol

56'▲S. Proost←▼R. Ivens

70'▲E. Oude Elberink←▼J. Ravensbergen

70'▲A. Gelevert←▼D. van Ginkel

Twente W substitutes

2Vegt18Brake19Proost14Elberink30Gelevert

Manager: Jan de Hoon

69'▲C. Promes←▼B. Franken

69'▲S. de Blij←▼E. van der Vliet

70'▲S. Aurelio←▼S. Heijblom

75'▲N. van den Burg←▼L. Verhoef

81'▲M. Goutier←▼K. Heshof

NAC Breda W substitutes

23Buitendijk8Aurelio15Fertoute24Goutier12Meerding19Oussoren7Promes22Visser25Yetim3Burg17Blij

Match Recap: Twente W vs NAC Breda W

Twente W beat NAC Breda W 6-0 in Eredivisie Women on September 21, 2025.

Goals: L. Groenewegen (14'), D. van Ginkel (41'), R. Ivens (52'), E. van der Vliet (59' o.g.), J. Ravensbergen (62'), E. Oude Elberink (78').

The match was played at Sportpark Schreurserve in Enschede.

Twente W vs NAC Breda W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Twente W vs NAC Breda W