Twente W 1–3 Chelsea W: Result & Stats

Twente W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Chelsea W

N. van Dijk 68'

G. Reiten 63' (pen)

M. Hamano 18'

A. Beever-Jones 7'

10/17/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 2De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Twente W52%

×Draw20%

Chelsea W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Twente WExpected goals in this matchChelsea W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.64

Twente W

2.29

Chelsea W

1.64

Twente W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

3.55

creates per match

2.23

1.05

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Twente W

3.55

Chelsea W

2.23

allows per match

Twente W

1.05

Chelsea W

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Twente W+0.00on par

Chelsea W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente W ↓

Chelsea W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Twente W or draw

72%

Twente W or Chelsea W

80%

Draw or Chelsea W

48%

Winning margin

Twente W wins by 2+

32%

Chelsea W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Twente W 1+ goals

90%

Twente W 2+ goals

66%

Twente W 3+ goals

40%

Chelsea W 1+ goals

81%

Chelsea W 2+ goals

49%

Chelsea W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Twente W (draw refunded)

65%

Chelsea W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente W at home — creates 3.55, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Chelsea W away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente W attack 3.55 + Chelsea W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 2.29

Chelsea W attack 2.23 + Twente W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Twente W scores more

52%

level

20%

Chelsea W scores more

28%

Twente W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Twente W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Hamano

Chelsea W · M

8.0

Match Events

7'

A. Beever-Jones↳ J. Rytting Kaneryd

18'

M. Hamano↳ W. Kaptein

46'

G. Reiten← S. Baltimore

46'

M. Mpome← K. Buchanan

60'

M. Ramírez← J. Rytting Kaneryd

60'

E. Cuthbert← O. Jean-François

63'

G. ReitenPenalty

68'

N. van Dijk↳ E. Peddemors

69'

Júlia Bartel← W. Kaptein

74'

C. Hulst← E. Peddemors

74'

R. Ivens← K. van Dooren

79'

J. Ravensbergen← A. Andradóttir

86'

S. Proost← S. te Brake

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TwenteChelsea

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots12

1Corners4

8Fouls4

Shots

8Total Shots12

4On Target5

2Off Target4

2Blocked3

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

415Total Passes579

322Accurate Passes494

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls4

0Offsides4