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Twente W vs Cardiff City W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Twente W
Twente Wadvanced
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cardiff City W
Cardiff City W
9/4/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsSportpark Schreurserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Twente W90%
×Draw7%
Cardiff City W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente W
3.52
Cardiff City W
0.53

Twente W creates 564% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

creates per match

Twente W
3.55
Cardiff City W
0.00

allows per match

Twente W
1.05
Cardiff City W
3.50

finishing

Twente W+0.00on par
Cardiff City W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente W ↓

Cardiff City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Twente W or draw
97%
Twente W or Cardiff City W
93%
Draw or Cardiff City W
10%

Winning margin

Twente W wins by 2+
75%
Cardiff City W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Twente W 1+ goals
97%
Twente W 2+ goals
86%
Twente W 3+ goals
66%
Cardiff City W 1+ goals
41%
Cardiff City W 2+ goals
10%
Cardiff City W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Twente W (draw refunded)
97%
Cardiff City W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente W at home — creates 3.55, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Cardiff City W away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente W attack 3.55 + Cardiff City W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.52

Cardiff City W attack 0.00 + Twente W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Twente W scores more
90%
level
7%
Cardiff City W scores more
3%

Twente W at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Twente W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Twente W 7–0 Cardiff City W

Twente W beat Cardiff City W 7-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Schreurserve in Enschede.