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Twente W vs Ajax W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Twente W
Twente W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Ajax W
Ajax W
4/21/2025Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 20De Grolsch Veste

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Twente W50%
×Draw20%
Ajax W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente W
2.27
Ajax W
1.75

Twente W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 73 away

creates per match

Twente W
3.41
Ajax W
2.58

allows per match

Twente W
0.92
Ajax W
1.12

finishing

Twente W+0.00on par
Ajax W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente W ↓

Ajax W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Twente W or draw
70%
Twente W or Ajax W
80%
Draw or Ajax W
50%

Winning margin

Twente W wins by 2+
30%
Ajax W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Twente W 1+ goals
90%
Twente W 2+ goals
66%
Twente W 3+ goals
39%
Ajax W 1+ goals
83%
Ajax W 2+ goals
52%
Ajax W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Twente W (draw refunded)
62%
Ajax W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente W at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.92 · 73 matches

Ajax W away — creates 2.58, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente W attack 3.41 + Ajax W defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 2.27

Ajax W attack 2.58 + Twente W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Twente W scores more
50%
level
20%
Ajax W scores more
30%

Twente W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Twente W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: Twente W 5–1 Ajax W

Twente W beat Ajax W 5-1 in Eredivisie Women on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede.