Twente 2–2 VfL Osnabrück: Result & Stats

Twente

2 – 2

VfL Osnabrück

1/8/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Oliva Nova Golf & Beach Resort Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Twente37%

×Draw24%

VfL Osnabrück39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TwenteExpected goals in this matchVfL Osnabrück

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.58

Twente

1.53

VfL Osnabrück

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.17

creates per match

2.33

0.83

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Twente

2.17

VfL Osnabrück

2.33

allows per match

Twente

0.83

VfL Osnabrück

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Twente+0.00on par

VfL Osnabrück+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente ↓

VfL Osnabrück →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Twente or draw

61%

Twente or VfL Osnabrück

76%

Draw or VfL Osnabrück

63%

Winning margin

Twente wins by 2+

18%

VfL Osnabrück wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Twente 1+ goals

78%

Twente 2+ goals

45%

Twente 3+ goals

20%

VfL Osnabrück 1+ goals

79%

VfL Osnabrück 2+ goals

47%

VfL Osnabrück 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Twente (draw refunded)

49%

VfL Osnabrück (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Twente at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

VfL Osnabrück away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Twente attack 2.17 + VfL Osnabrück defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.53

VfL Osnabrück attack 2.33 + Twente defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Twente scores more

37%

level

24%

VfL Osnabrück scores more

39%

VfL Osnabrück at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "VfL Osnabrück will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff