Twente / Heracles U21 2–1 Willem II U21

Twente / Heracles U21

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Willem II U21

10/25/2025

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Twente / Heracles U2147%

×Draw22%

Willem II U2131%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Twente / Heracles U21Expected goals in this matchWillem II U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.54

Twente / Heracles U21

1.93

Willem II U21

1.54

Twente / Heracles U21 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 24 away

1.85

creates per match

1.46

1.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Twente / Heracles U21

1.85

Willem II U21

1.46

allows per match

Twente / Heracles U21

1.63

Willem II U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Willem II U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente / Heracles U21 ↓

Willem II U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Twente / Heracles U21 or draw

69%

Twente / Heracles U21 or Willem II U21

78%

Draw or Willem II U21

53%

Winning margin

Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+

26%

Willem II U21 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals

85%

Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals

57%

Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals

30%

Willem II U21 1+ goals

79%

Willem II U21 2+ goals

45%

Willem II U21 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)

60%

Willem II U21 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente / Heracles U21 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 59 matches

Willem II U21 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.85 + Willem II U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Willem II U21 attack 1.46 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Twente / Heracles U21 scores more

47%

level

22%

Willem II U21 scores more

31%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff