Twente / Heracles U21 5–2 Sittard U21

Twente / Heracles U21

FT

5 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Sittard U21

5/16/2026

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Twente / Heracles U2162%

×Draw20%

Sittard U2118%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Twente / Heracles U21Expected goals in this matchSittard U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.10

Twente / Heracles U21

2.21

Sittard U21

1.10

Twente / Heracles U21 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 7 away

1.85

creates per match

0.57

1.63

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Twente / Heracles U21

1.85

Sittard U21

0.57

allows per match

Twente / Heracles U21

1.63

Sittard U21

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Sittard U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente / Heracles U21 ↓

Sittard U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Twente / Heracles U21 or draw

82%

Twente / Heracles U21 or Sittard U21

80%

Draw or Sittard U21

38%

Winning margin

Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+

39%

Sittard U21 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals

89%

Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals

65%

Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals

38%

Sittard U21 1+ goals

67%

Sittard U21 2+ goals

30%

Sittard U21 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)

78%

Sittard U21 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente / Heracles U21 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 59 matches

Sittard U21 away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.85 + Sittard U21 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sittard U21 attack 0.57 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Twente / Heracles U21 scores more

62%

level

20%

Sittard U21 scores more

18%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff