Twente / Heracles U21 2–1 NEC U21: Result & Stats

Twente / Heracles U21

FT

2 – 1

NEC U21

10/3/2020

U21 Divisie 1 · Round 6FC Twente-trainingscentrum TC veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Twente / Heracles U2148%

×Draw22%

NEC U2130%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Twente / Heracles U21Expected goals in this matchNEC U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.52

Twente / Heracles U21

1.98

NEC U21

1.52

Twente / Heracles U21 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

1.85

creates per match

1.42

1.63

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Twente / Heracles U21

1.85

NEC U21

1.42

allows per match

Twente / Heracles U21

1.63

NEC U21

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

NEC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente / Heracles U21 ↓

NEC U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Twente / Heracles U21 or draw

70%

Twente / Heracles U21 or NEC U21

78%

Draw or NEC U21

52%

Winning margin

Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+

27%

NEC U21 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals

86%

Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals

59%

Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals

31%

NEC U21 1+ goals

78%

NEC U21 2+ goals

45%

NEC U21 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)

62%

NEC U21 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente / Heracles U21 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 59 matches

NEC U21 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.85 + NEC U21 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.98

NEC U21 attack 1.42 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Twente / Heracles U21 scores more

48%

level

22%

NEC U21 scores more

30%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff