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NEC U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

NEC U21
NEC U21
FT
2 – 1
Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
9/11/2021U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 2MSC De Eendracht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

NEC U2132%
×Draw22%
Twente / Heracles U2146%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC U21
1.59
Twente / Heracles U21
1.94

Twente / Heracles U21 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 60 away

creates per match

NEC U21
1.15
Twente / Heracles U21
1.82

allows per match

NEC U21
2.05
Twente / Heracles U21
2.03

finishing

NEC U21+0.00on par
Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC U21 ↓

Twente / Heracles U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

NEC U21 or draw
54%
NEC U21 or Twente / Heracles U21
78%
Draw or Twente / Heracles U21
68%

Winning margin

NEC U21 wins by 2+
15%
Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

NEC U21 1+ goals
80%
NEC U21 2+ goals
47%
NEC U21 3+ goals
21%
Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
86%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
58%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

NEC U21 (draw refunded)
41%
Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC U21 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

Twente / Heracles U21 away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC U21 attack 1.15 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.59

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.82 + NEC U21 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NEC U21 scores more
32%
level
22%
Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
46%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC U21 vs Twente / Heracles U21

NEC U21 beat Twente / Heracles U21 2-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at MSC De Eendracht in Nijmegen.