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Twente / Heracles U21 vs De Graafschap U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Twente / Heracles U21
Twente / Heracles U21
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
De Graafschap U21
De Graafschap U21
10/4/2025U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Twente / Heracles U2144%
×Draw23%
De Graafschap U2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Twente / Heracles U21
1.77
De Graafschap U21
1.51

Twente / Heracles U21 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 50 away

creates per match

Twente / Heracles U21
1.85
De Graafschap U21
1.40

allows per match

Twente / Heracles U21
1.63
De Graafschap U21
1.68

finishing

Twente / Heracles U21+0.00on par
De Graafschap U21+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Twente / Heracles U21 ↓

De Graafschap U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Twente / Heracles U21 or draw
67%
Twente / Heracles U21 or De Graafschap U21
77%
Draw or De Graafschap U21
56%

Winning margin

Twente / Heracles U21 wins by 2+
23%
De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Twente / Heracles U21 1+ goals
83%
Twente / Heracles U21 2+ goals
53%
Twente / Heracles U21 3+ goals
26%
De Graafschap U21 1+ goals
78%
De Graafschap U21 2+ goals
44%
De Graafschap U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Twente / Heracles U21 (draw refunded)
57%
De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Twente / Heracles U21 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 59 matches

De Graafschap U21 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.68 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Twente / Heracles U21 attack 1.85 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

De Graafschap U21 attack 1.40 + Twente / Heracles U21 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Twente / Heracles U21 scores more
44%
level
23%
De Graafschap U21 scores more
33%

Twente / Heracles U21 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Twente / Heracles U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Twente / Heracles U21 vs De Graafschap U21

Twente / Heracles U21 beat De Graafschap U21 3-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on October 4, 2025.