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Tver vs Torpedo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Tver
Tver
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
11/13/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tver42%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Moskva II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tver
1.38
Torpedo Moskva II
1.16

Tver creates 19% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tver
1.43
Torpedo Moskva II
1.13

allows per match

Tver
1.19
Torpedo Moskva II
1.33

finishing

Tver+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tver ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tver or draw
68%
Tver or Torpedo Moskva II
73%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva II
58%

Winning margin

Tver wins by 2+
20%
Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tver 1+ goals
75%
Tver 2+ goals
40%
Tver 3+ goals
16%
Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
69%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
32%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tver (draw refunded)
57%
Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tver at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.19 · 89 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tver attack 1.43 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Tver defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tver scores more
42%
level
27%
Torpedo Moskva II scores more
32%

Tver at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Tver 1–3 Torpedo Moskva II

Torpedo Moskva II beat Tver 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Junost' in Tver'.