Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tver vs Smolensk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Tver
Tver
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Smolensk
Smolensk
8/23/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tver54%
×Draw24%
Smolensk22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tver
1.68
Smolensk
0.96

Tver creates 75% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tver
1.43
Smolensk
0.73

allows per match

Tver
1.19
Smolensk
1.93

finishing

Tver+0.00on par
Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tver ↓

Smolensk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tver or draw
78%
Tver or Smolensk
76%
Draw or Smolensk
46%

Winning margin

Tver wins by 2+
30%
Smolensk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tver 1+ goals
81%
Tver 2+ goals
50%
Tver 3+ goals
24%
Smolensk 1+ goals
62%
Smolensk 2+ goals
25%
Smolensk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tver (draw refunded)
72%
Smolensk (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tver at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.19 · 89 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tver attack 1.43 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Tver defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tver scores more
54%
level
24%
Smolensk scores more
22%

Tver at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tver vs Smolensk

Tver beat Smolensk 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Junost' in Tver'.