Tver 1–1 Dinamo Vologda: Result & Stats

Tver

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Vologda

B. Tsygankov 32'

A. Betyuzhnov 77'

5/26/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Tver42%

×Draw27%

Dinamo Vologda32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TverExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vologda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.16

Tver

1.38

Dinamo Vologda

1.16

Tver creates 19% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 60 away

1.43

creates per match

1.13

1.19

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Tver

1.43

Dinamo Vologda

1.13

allows per match

Tver

1.19

Dinamo Vologda

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tver+0.00on par

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tver ↓

Dinamo Vologda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tver or draw

68%

Tver or Dinamo Vologda

73%

Draw or Dinamo Vologda

58%

Winning margin

Tver wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tver 1+ goals

75%

Tver 2+ goals

40%

Tver 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tver (draw refunded)

57%

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tver at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.19 · 89 matches

Dinamo Vologda away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tver attack 1.43 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.13 + Tver defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tver scores more

42%

level

27%

Dinamo Vologda scores more

32%

Tver at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

V. Korneev

23'

R. Bashirov

32'

B. Tsygankov

46'

N. Dorofeev← V. Korneev

46'

V. Lazarev← R. Bashirov

46'

A. Betyuzhnov← A. Deryugin

69'

M. Meshalkin← V. Belyaev

69'

M. Lyamzin← S. Oliynyk

76'

V. Sholokh

77'

A. Betyuzhnov

82'

M. Pilipenko← B. Tsygankov

90'

A. Yakushin

90'

A. Yakushin

Tver

Dinamo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: V. Ternavskiy

46'▲N. Dorofeev←▼V. Korneev

82'▲M. Pilipenko←▼B. Tsygankov

Tver substitutes

DorofeevPilipenko

Manager: R. Chesalov

46'▲V. Lazarev←▼R. Bashirov

46'▲A. Betyuzhnov←▼A. Deryugin

69'▲M. Meshalkin←▼V. Belyaev

69'▲M. Lyamzin←▼S. Oliynyk

Dinamo Vologda substitutes

LazarevBetyuzhnovMeshalkinLyamzin