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Tver vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Tver
Tver
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
8/18/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Tver42%
×Draw26%
Baltika BFU32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tver
1.42
Baltika BFU
1.22

Tver creates 16% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 53 away

creates per match

Tver
1.43
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Tver
1.19
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Tver+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tver ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tver or draw
68%
Tver or Baltika BFU
74%
Draw or Baltika BFU
58%

Winning margin

Tver wins by 2+
20%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tver 1+ goals
76%
Tver 2+ goals
41%
Tver 3+ goals
17%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
70%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
34%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tver (draw refunded)
56%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tver at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.19 · 89 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tver attack 1.43 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Tver defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tver scores more
42%
level
26%
Baltika BFU scores more
32%

Tver at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tver vs Baltika BFU

Baltika BFU beat Tver 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Junost' in Tver'.