TVD Velbert 0–3 Union Nettetal: Result & Stats

TVD Velbert

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Union Nettetal

4/26/2024

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 29Sportplatz Velbert Birth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TVD Velbert51%

×Draw21%

Union Nettetal28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TVD VelbertExpected goals in this matchUnion Nettetal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.56

TVD Velbert

2.13

Union Nettetal

1.56

TVD Velbert creates 37% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 74 away

2.04

creates per match

1.34

1.78

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

TVD Velbert

2.04

Union Nettetal

1.34

allows per match

TVD Velbert

1.78

Union Nettetal

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TVD Velbert ↓

Union Nettetal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

TVD Velbert or draw

72%

TVD Velbert or Union Nettetal

79%

Draw or Union Nettetal

49%

Winning margin

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

30%

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

88%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

63%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

35%

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

79%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

46%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

64%

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TVD Velbert at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.78 · 76 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TVD Velbert attack 2.04 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.13

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + TVD Velbert defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TVD Velbert scores more

51%

level

21%

Union Nettetal scores more

28%

TVD Velbert at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TVD Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff