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TVD Velbert vs Cronenberger SC — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
FT
5 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
3/27/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Sportplatz Velbert Birth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

TVD Velbert55%
×Draw20%
Cronenberger SC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TVD Velbert
2.26
Cronenberger SC
1.45

TVD Velbert creates 56% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 42 away

creates per match

TVD Velbert
2.04
Cronenberger SC
1.12

allows per match

TVD Velbert
1.78
Cronenberger SC
2.48

finishing

TVD Velbert+0.00on par
Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TVD Velbert ↓

Cronenberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

TVD Velbert or draw
76%
TVD Velbert or Cronenberger SC
80%
Draw or Cronenberger SC
45%

Winning margin

TVD Velbert wins by 2+
34%
Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

TVD Velbert 1+ goals
89%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
66%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
39%
Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
77%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
42%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
70%
Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TVD Velbert at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.78 · 76 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TVD Velbert attack 2.04 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.26

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + TVD Velbert defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TVD Velbert scores more
55%
level
20%
Cronenberger SC scores more
24%

TVD Velbert at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TVD Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TVD Velbert vs Cronenberger SC

TVD Velbert beat Cronenberger SC 5-3 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Velbert Birth in Velbert.