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Tvååker vs Utsikten — Ettan - Södra 2019

Tvååker
Tvååker
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Utsikten
Utsikten
8/24/2019Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 20Övrevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Tvååker42%
×Draw25%
Utsikten32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tvååker
1.48
Utsikten
1.26

Tvååker creates 17% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 53 away

creates per match

Tvååker
1.29
Utsikten
1.38

allows per match

Tvååker
1.15
Utsikten
1.66

finishing

Tvååker+0.00on par
Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tvååker ↓

Utsikten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tvååker or draw
68%
Tvååker or Utsikten
75%
Draw or Utsikten
58%

Winning margin

Tvååker wins by 2+
21%
Utsikten wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tvååker 1+ goals
77%
Tvååker 2+ goals
43%
Tvååker 3+ goals
19%
Utsikten 1+ goals
72%
Utsikten 2+ goals
36%
Utsikten 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tvååker (draw refunded)
57%
Utsikten (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tvååker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.15 · 97 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tvååker attack 1.29 + Utsikten defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Utsikten attack 1.38 + Tvååker defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tvååker scores more
42%
level
25%
Utsikten scores more
32%

Tvååker at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tvååker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Tvååker 2–2 Utsikten

Tvååker and Utsikten drew 2-2 in Ettan - Södra on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Övrevi in Tvååker.