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Tuzla City vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
9/16/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 5Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City44%
×Draw26%
TOŠK Tešanj30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.50
TOŠK Tešanj
1.20

Tuzla City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 97 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.48
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.19
TOŠK Tešanj
1.53

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
70%
Tuzla City or TOŠK Tešanj
74%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
56%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
22%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
78%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
44%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
19%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
70%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
34%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
59%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tuzla City scores more
44%
level
26%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
30%

Tuzla City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Tuzla City 3–1 TOŠK Tešanj

Tuzla City beat TOŠK Tešanj 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.