Tuzla City 2–1 Tomislav: Result & Stats

Tuzla City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tomislav

3/8/2025

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City46%

×Draw25%

Tomislav29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuzla CityExpected goals in this matchTomislav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.19

Tuzla City

1.56

Tomislav

1.19

Tuzla City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 64 away

1.48

creates per match

1.20

1.19

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Tuzla City

1.48

Tomislav

1.20

allows per match

Tuzla City

1.19

Tomislav

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Tomislav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Tomislav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw

71%

Tuzla City or Tomislav

75%

Draw or Tomislav

54%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+

23%

Tomislav wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals

79%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

46%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

21%

Tomislav 1+ goals

70%

Tomislav 2+ goals

33%

Tomislav 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

61%

Tomislav (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Tomislav away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Tomislav defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tomislav attack 1.20 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tuzla City scores more

46%

level

25%

Tomislav scores more

29%

Tuzla City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff